The purpose of this study was to analyse the relationship between entering tennis men’s singles Grand Slams within the top-10 ranking (i.e. title favourites) and the fact of winning the tournament. In order to differentiate between these players in a more powerful way than just considering the ranking number, a cluster algorithm was used to classify the players into two groups depending on their number of ranking points (i.e. higher level top-10 players vs. lower level top-10 players). The possible winners entering the tournament outside the top-10 (if any) were also considered. The sample comprised all the 92 men’s singles Grand Slams played between 1990 and 2012. As was expected, the majority of Grand Slams were won by players entering the tournament ranked in the top-10. However, the main result is contrary to the hypothesis that there would be significant differences in the number of titles won in favour of the players entering the tournament from the higher positions of the top-10 when comparing to those won by the players entering from the lower positions of the top-10. Several factors that may influence whether and to what extent a player is more or less favourite to win a Grand Slam title are presented in the discussion.

Resumen

El propósito del estudio fue analizar la relación entre acceder a los Grand Slam de tenis masculino desde el top-10 del ranking (favoritos al título) y el hecho de ganar el torneo. Con el objeto de diferenciar a estos jugadores de una forma más potente que simplemente considerando su número de ranking, se empleó un algoritmo cluster que clasificó a los jugadores en dos grupos en función del número de puntos de ranking (jugadores de mayor nivel dentro del top-10 v. jugadores de menor nivel del top-10). Los posibles ganadores del torneo accediendo al mismo desde posiciones fuera del top-10 (si los hubiera) fueron también considerados. La muestra comprendió los 92 torneos de Grand Slam masculinos jugados entre 1990 y 2012. Según lo esperado, la mayoría de Grand Slams fueron ganados por jugadores que accedieron al torneo dentro de los diez primeros clasificados del ranking. Sin embargo, el principal resultado es contrario a la hipótesis de que existirían diferencias significativas entre el número de títulos ganados en favor de los jugadores que accedían a los torneos desde las primeras posiciones del top-10 cuando se comparan con aquellos títulos ganados por los jugadores que accedían desde las posiciones más bajas del top-10. Múltiples factores que pueden influir en el hecho de que un jugador sea más o menos favorito para ganar un torneo de Grand Slam son discutidos.

http://dx.doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2016.04605

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