El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo indagar en la ventaja de jugar en casa eliminatorias a doble partido en fútbol. Fueron analizadas eliminatorias de cuartos de final y semifinal de la UEFA Champions League desde 1954-55 hasta 2013-14, haciendo un total 642 partidos y 336 eliminatorias. Se aplicó un contraste no paramétrico binomial para conocer la influencia de jugar en casa, mientras que la regresión logística binaria se utilizó para mostrar la proporción explicativa de los goles al pasar la eliminatoria tras el primer enfrentamiento. Los principales resultados mostraron que en cuartos de final, los equipos locales (segundo partido) pasaron la eliminatoria en mayor proporción que en semifinales, en las que los equipos visitantes (segundo partido) se clasificaron en mayor proporción. En un plano estratégico, una mayor adecuación del modelo de juego y la selección de alineaciones más acordes con el orden de eliminatorias a doble partido serán algunas utilidades ofrecidas por este trabajo para los entrenadores.

Abstract

This research aims to investigate second leg home advantage in football. UEFA Champions League quarter-finals and semi-finals from 1954-55 season to 2013-14 season were analyzed, adding up to 642 matches and 336 playoffs. A non-parametric binomial contrast was applied to determine the influence of playing at home, while the binary logistic regression was used to show the explanatory proportion of goals after winning the qualifying round following the first confrontation. The main results showed that, in quarter-finals, local teams (second match) passed the qualifying round at higher rates than in semi-finals, in which visiting teams (second match) were classified at higher rates. From a strategic point of view, a better match-up game model and the selection of an alignment more consistent with the order of two-legged ties, will be some of the utilities offered by this work for coaches.

http://dx.doi.org/10.5232/ricyde2016.04405

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